Aliran Kewangan Haram, Institusi, Liberalisasi Kewangan dan Keterbukaan Perdagangan: Analisis Data Panel (Illicit Financial Flow, Institutions, Financial Liberalization and Trade Openness: A Panel Data Analysis)

Abstract

Kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji pengaruh faktor institusi, liberalisasi kewangan dan keterbukaan perdagangan terhadap aliran kewangan haram daripada negara sedang membangun terpilih (95 buah negara) untuk tempoh tahun 2000-2008. Untuk mengukur aliran kewangan haram, kajian ini menggunakan model yang dikemukakan oleh IMF iaitu ukuran ‘trade mispricing’ (GER-Gross Excluding Reversals). Keputusan kajian dengan menggunakan analisis data panel statik (kesan tetap dan kesan rambang) mendapati faktor institusi, tahap liberalisasi kewangan, dan keterbukaan perdagangan signifikan mempengaruhi aliran kewangan haram. Implikasi dasar daripada kajian ini menunjukkan kepentingan peranan kerajaan dalam mengawal kualiti institusi daripada aspek kestabilan kerajaan, kadar rasuah dan undang-undang untuk mengekang aliran kewangan haram. Selain itu, kerajaan juga perlu mengawal dasar liberalisasi kewangan melalui kawalan modal agar masalah peningkatan aliran kewangan haram dapat diatasi.

This paper aims to investigate the influence of institution factors, financial liberalization and trade openness on the outflow of illicit financial flow from selected developing countries (95 countries) for the period of 2000-2008. To measure the outflow of illicit financial, this study used the model proposed by the IMF, a measure of trade mispricing (GER-Gross Excluding Reversals). Findings of the study using static panel data analysis (fixed effects and random effects) found that institutional factors, the level of financial liberalization, and trade openness are statistically significance in influencing the illicit financial flow. The policy implications of this study indicated that the importance of government in controlling the quality of institutions in terms of government stability, corruption and law in restricting the inflow of illicit financial. In addition, the government also need to control their financial liberalization policy through capital control in mitigating the inflow of illicit financial.